In a striking realignment of global oil dynamics, the alliance of leading producers, OPEC+, signals a readiness to unwind previously rigid output cuts, thereby re-asserting itself as the pivotal balancing force in the oil and gas industry. With the group responsible for roughly 59% of global oil production in recent years, including both core members of OPEC and key allied non-members such as Russia, the market is witnessing a deliberate pivot from restraint towards supply expansion. This evolution is particularly evident against a backdrop of renewed sanctions on Russian majors, which has triggered a ripple effect across supply chains and pricing mechanisms. When the US imposed fresh measures on Russia’s largest oil companies, global oil prices rose by upwards of 5% in one day.
Output Strategy
For much of the recent past, OPEC+ adopted production cuts to prop up prices in the wake of demand shocks, notably during the pandemic and subsequent macro-economic softening. The latest data indicate that global oil supply increased by some 760 000 barrels per day (bpd) in September alone, taking total supply to approximately 108 million bpd last month. Within this increase, OPEC+ added around 1 million bpd, led by the Middle East. The group’s calculated adjustment launched earlier this year, adding over 2.7 million bpd (equivalent to about 2.5% of global demand) through gradual lifting of cuts. Significantly, at its meeting on 5 October, OPEC+ announced a further production rise of 137 000 bpd beginning November, a modest but symbolically important marker of its output reversal.
Sanctions, Supply and Regional Shifts
The timing of this pivot is no accident. US sanctions targeting major Russian oil firms have injected a premium into the market and elevated the strategic importance of Gulf supply. The move has spurred importers, notably in India, to reassess Russian crude agreements, thereby increasing demand for Middle East barrels. Kuwait’s oil minister publicly acknowledged that OPEC+ stands ready to step in and address any supply shortfalls stemming from sanctions. Yet the picture is not uniformly rosy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that stockpiles remain elevated in many regions, and demand growth is slowing, with annual oil-demand gains forecast at around 700 000 bpd in both 2025 and 2026, well below historic norms. While supply disruptions might be anticipated, analysts caution that OPEC+ spare capacity is thinner than often portrayed, particularly outside Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Looking Ahead
What emerges is a landscape of intricate interdependencies. On one side sits the clear strategic intent of OPEC+ to reclaim market share and influence, on the other the persistent drag from softening demand and structural shifts towards electrification in transport. Even as Brent crude approached the mid-$60s per barrel, the risk of oversupply looms large unless demand materialises more strongly than is currently forecast. For investors and industry insiders, the key question is not simply whether OPEC+ will raise production, but whether it can do so without tipping the balance into a surplus. And whether measures such as sanctions on Russia will translate into genuine supply lost or simply rerouted. The answers to these questions will determine whether the next phase of the oil market becomes a period of resurgence for producers or renewed vulnerability to price erosion.
Chloe Maluleke
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Russian & Middle Eastern Specialist
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