To understand why Iran does not behave like a conventional state under military pressure, you have to understand what is animating its power structure at the deepest level. Twelver Shia Muslims, Iran’s majority and the theological foundation of its government, believe that the twelfth divinely ordained Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, entered a state of divine occultation in 874 CE. He did not die. He was concealed by God and will return at the appointed hour to establish universal justice.
This is not a peripheral belief. It is the load-bearing wall of the Islamic Republic’s entire governing ideology. Ayatollah Khomeini argued that the Imam’s absence did not suspend divine governance, instead, qualified jurists must rule as deputies of the Hidden Imam until his return. This doctrine, Velayat-e Faqih, transformed clerical authority into political sovereignty. The Supreme Leader is not merely a political figure. He is, in doctrinal terms, the Mahdi’s earthly representative.
The IRGC’s worldview hinges on Mahdism: preparing the ground for the Hidden Imam’s return. Its 1979 constitution explicitly mandates that the IRGC spread Sharia and prepare for the Mahdi’s global revolution. The destruction of Israel is understood not merely as a political objective but as a religious prerequisite as the removal of the greatest barrier to the Mahdi’s reappearance.
What this means in practice is that Iran’s hardline military-theological core does not experience sustained bombardment the way a secular state does. Within Shia eschatology, the concept of Tamhis (a divine sifting or purification), teaches that the path to redemption is paved with Fitna, a state of absolute chaos and unbearable trials. The appearance of the Hidden Imam is preceded by global upheaval. For the ideological core of the IRGC, the current siege is not a sign of defeat; it is confirmation that they are approaching the peak of history. As the Iran-Iraq war demonstrated, if this struggle results in mass martyrdom, this is thought only to hasten the coming of the Imam Mahdi. This is the strategic blind spot of Operation Epic Fury. You cannot bomb a civilisation into submission when its foundational theology teaches that suffering accelerates divine victory.
The Invisible Leader
The killing of Ali Khamenei was designed to create a power vacuum, which might allow the US to infiltrate the system, but instead created something potentially more dangerous for its enemies: a martyr-father and an invisible successor.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old second son of the deceased supreme leader, whose wife and sister were also killed in the 28th of February strike, was announced as the new supreme leader on the 9th of March in a unanimous vote by the Assembly of Experts. The CIA, Mossad, and intelligence agencies worldwide watched Nowruz pass on 21st March waiting for a public appearance. None came, only a written statement. Four weeks in, no verified video of his existence has emerged. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Mojtaba was wounded and possibly disfigured in the strike that killed his father. Iran has neither confirmed nor denied this.
The name Mojtaba, meaning "the Chosen One", is the title of Hasan ibn Ali, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad and the second Shia Imam. To a Western observer, an invisible leader looks like weakness. To a population steeped in the doctrine of the Hidden Imam, a leader who cannot be seen, located, or killed carries a very specific theological resonance. The occultation is not unfamiliar terrain in Iranian religious consciousness. It is the central organising metaphor of the faith. A supreme leader communicating through written statements while intelligence agencies worldwide search for signs of life is not undermining the regime’s legitimacy. He is deepening it.
In his first written statement, Mojtaba declared that every Iranian martyred by the enemy becomes "an independent case for revenge", extending retaliation beyond his father’s death to every casualty of the war. "Until it reaches its complete extent," he wrote, "this case will remain open above all others." This is not the language of a state seeking a ceasefire. It is the language of a theological mission with no terminal condition.
A Deal That Was Never Going to Land
On 25th March, the Trump administration transmitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran via Pakistani intermediaries. Within 24 hours, Iran publicly rejected it. A senior official described it as "extremely maximalist and unreasonable", "not beautiful, even on paper." Iran’s state broadcaster was blunter: "The end of the war will occur when Iran decides it should end, not when Trump envisions its conclusion."
The proposal demanded Iran commit never to pursue nuclear weapons, dismantle its three main nuclear facilities, surrender enriched uranium to the IAEA, suspend ballistic missile production, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and cut all funding to Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. These demands closely mirror the framework Tehran had already declined. Just three days before the 28th of February strikes, Iran was in indirect Geneva talks, signalling genuine willingness to make nuclear concessions. Washington chose war instead. Tehran has not forgotten the sequencing.
Iran’s counter-proposal reveals precisely what it believes this war has earned: a halt to US and Israeli attacks and assassinations; binding mechanisms guaranteeing no future war; full war reparations; a cessation of hostilities against Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq; and formal international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military spokesperson stated plainly that Tehran plans to charge tolls on ships passing through the strategic waterway: "The authority to issue passage permits is ours."
The Question That Was Never Asked
Every US president between 2001 and 2024 chose not to go to war with Iran. That restraint was not born of weakness. It was born of a strategic assessment that costs would exceed any conceivable benefit. Those presidents read history. They understood the terrain.
The Iranian plateau has absorbed empires for two and a half thousand years. It absorbed the Greeks after Alexander. It absorbed the Arabs and made Islam Persian. It absorbed the Mongols and converted them. It has never been successfully occupied by a foreign power that arrived expecting a short campaign.
The IRGC commanders holding the line in Iran’s mountains right now were told from their first day of training that chaos and martyrdom are not defeats, they are the ordained path to divine victory. They were told that the greatest obstacle to the Mahdi’s return is the existence of Israel and its Western patron.
You cannot negotiate that position away with airstrikes, and you cannot win a war against a people for whom losing is, theologically, indistinguishable from winning.
Written by:
*Chloe Maluleke
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Russia & Middle East Specialist
**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL.
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