Anthropic’s first-half net loss reached $80.7 billion, up from $13 billion a year earlier, according to its draft IPO prospectus. The number is startling, but most of it isn’t cash leaving the building. About $72 billion is an accounting charge, because the estimated value of convertible bonds that could become Anthropic shares has climbed. In effect, the loss is a side effect of a soaring valuation.
The same thing happened last year. Anthropic’s 2025 net loss was about $42 billion, including a $34 billion non-cash charge, against an operating loss of roughly $8.1 billion on $4.6 billion of revenue. The operating loss is the figure to watch, and it is the one the compute bill drives.
Growth that most companies never see
Revenue growth has been extraordinary. Anthropic reportedly booked $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $1.1 billion a year before. Third-quarter revenue rose 45% to $16.8 billion, following a second quarter of $11.6 billion that more than doubled the first.
That 45% is the problem. Sequential growth is slowing, and investors noticed. Those at the investor day are now discussing a valuation near $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $2 trillion, which had been the expectation over the summer. Against a $965 billion private valuation in May, $1.5 trillion is still a large step up. It is simply a smaller step than the market had priced in.
The bill for being compute-starved
The cost side explains the caution. Anthropic has committed to at least $518 billion in cloud, compute and infrastructure spending over a decade. Roughly 80 percent of those commitments cannot be cancelled. The Wall Street Journal’s reading of the draft is larger still, putting commitments above $600 billion, with further deals under negotiation. The gap between the two figures suggests the total is still moving.
First-half spending on computing and infrastructure hit nearly $9 billion, versus $2.3 billion a year earlier. The prospectus also says something about Anthropic’s relationships. Amazon, Google and Microsoft increasingly see Anthropic as a competitor and have been reluctant to supply all the capacity it needs, which pushes Anthropic toward pricier, more fragmented sources. The company is building dependence on rivals into its cost structure.
What the bulls are betting on
The optimistic case rests on a margin shift. Bankers and investors are applying revenue multiples to 2028 forecasts, betting revenue will outrun the costs of supporting it. One prominent backer argues that as spending moves from training models to running them, profitability improves sharply, citing reported inference gross margins around 85%. If that holds, today’s spending looks like an investment in software-like economics.
Claude Code is the engine. The coding assistant gave Anthropic a product developers pay for repeatedly, and that is why the company’s revenue is so enterprise-weighted. Anthropic also sells to businesses and developers rather than consumers, which made it more financially attractive than OpenAI’s ChatGPT-led model.
The risks hiding in the footnotes
Three things deserve attention when the final prospectus lands. First, concentration: around a fifth of first-half revenue came from two customers. Second, fragility: a temporary Commerce Department restriction on Anthropic’s top models contributed to slower revenue growth in June before business recovered. Third, structure, since non-cancellable contracts mean a growth stall cannot be met with cost cuts.
Accounting for the convertible bonds also makes reported losses a poor guide to underlying health. Until the audited version appears, run-rate revenue, reported revenue and projected profit should not be treated as audited results.
Why the whole sector is watching
Anthropic’s debut matters beyond Anthropic. A weak reception could weigh on the wider AI market, particularly because OpenAI is next. OpenAI’s CFO has said it will be public next year, and its own projections show about $278 billion in cash spending through 2030. Advisers have warned that tech-stock volatility and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance could dampen retail appetite.
Written by:
*Chloe Maluleke
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Russia & Middle East Specialist
**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL.
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