What was found
The well is jointly owned by state-run Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and French operator Maurel & Prom (M&P), which holds a 60% interest in the licence. M&P’s own activity report, published days earlier, put the find at roughly 200 billion cubic feet gross, with 120 billion attributable to the company, and a gross production potential of 50 million cubic feet a day. Production is expected to begin in early November, aimed at households, industry and vehicles.
A drop in a very large bucket
Tanzania’s discovered reserves stand at 57.54 trillion cubic feet, so the new find adds about 0.4% by my arithmetic. It is also only about 8% of the country’s largest single discovery, 2.7 trillion cubic feet in 2016. Offshore blocks operated by Equinor and Shell hold tens of trillions of cubic feet, and the long-planned LNG plant at Lindi would be designed for 10 to 15 million tonnes a year.
What the Mnazi Bay find offers is proximity. It is onshore, next to existing infrastructure in Mtwara, and the region’s pipelines already feed Dar es Salaam’s power plants. Gas supplied nearly 80% of Tanzania’s electricity in 2024, and Mnazi Bay is one of the fields behind that. M&P’s working-interest output there averaged 67 million cubic feet a day in the first nine months of 2026, up 12% on a year earlier, so new volumes can be tied in quickly.
The demand question
The more interesting issue is who will buy the gas. Power may not be the answer. The 2,115MW Julius Nyerere hydropower plant, inaugurated in August, lifted installed capacity to 4,646MW against peak demand of 2,271MW, a surplus of more than 2,300MW. Homera himself framed the find around industrial growth rather than electricity, saying demand is rising “particularly at a time” of expanding economic activity.
That points to the other uses. Compressed natural gas already powers vehicles around Dar es Salaam, and drivers who have converted to dual-fuel systems are saving money because local gas is cheaper than petrol. TPDC says it is negotiating with four potential investors on small-scale LNG projects, a route that could carry gas to places pipelines don’t reach. Supply security matters as well: in late September, Orca Energy warned that its operation of the Songo Songo field could end when its licence expired on 10 October, pending approval of a sale. A new source of gas is welcome in a system that still leans on a few fields.
The LNG shadow
Everything in Tanzanian gas is judged against the $42 billion Lindi LNG project, which Equinor and Shell have been negotiating for years. It has been delayed for over a decade by disputes over taxation, local content requirements and domestic gas obligations. In January, a senior minister told Reuters that Tanzania expected to sign a deal before June, with production starting about eight years later.
A 223 billion cubic feet find cannot replace that project. But it shows the country can still drill successfully after an exploration drought that had raised doubts about the coastal basin’s future. If it helps build a domestic market for gas, with industrial buyers, CNG and small-scale LNG, it could make the case for larger investment stronger. The test now is whether pricing and regulation let that market grow.
Written by:
*Sesona Mdlokovana
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Africa Specialist
**The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL.
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