Reports that Washington and Moscow have discussed finding a US investor for Nord Stream, and arranging Russian gas sales to Europe, have revived one of the energy sector’s most contentious ideas. According to Reuters, US envoy Jared Kushner and Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, have met in Moscow and New York in recent weeks to explore energy deals as part of efforts to broker a truce between Russia and Ukraine. The White House insists there have been "no Nord Stream discussions recently".
A wall of sanctions and law
Nothing can happen quickly. Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 remain under US and EU sanctions. The $11bn Nord Stream 2 never entered service after Germany halted its certification in early 2022. Russia then shut Nord Stream 1 that September, blaming sanctions for its inability to repair turbines. Leaks found on both lines at the end of that month, in suspected sabotage, added physical damage to the political barriers.
Berlin has been unambiguous. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged to do all it takes to keep Nord Stream 2 offline. Germany’s economy and energy ministry says it has found alternatives and does not want the pipelines reopened, which would in any case require government approval.
EU law is also moving the other way. The bloc has adopted a binding regulation banning Russian LNG from the start of 2027 and pipeline gas from autumn 2027. Violators face fines of at least €2.5 million. Brussels has also said it will not resume Russian supplies even after the war ends. A US-owned Nord Stream would therefore meet a legal barrier, not merely a political one.
Why the idea has traction
The appeal is economic. Russia supplied around 40% of Europe’s gas in 2022, but that share has fallen to roughly 19%, mostly LNG and TurkStream flows. Meanwhile, Europe is heading into winter with a tight market. TTF October futures reached about €82/MWh in mid-September, against roughly €45 in June. Storage stood at 68.5% on 15 September, compared with 80.6% a year earlier and a five-year average of 84%. Morgan Stanley expects a winter average of €85/MWh, with more than €100 possible in a cold winter or if Qatari supply is disrupted further. kyivpost (https://www.kyivpost.com/amp/post/52336)gmk (https://gmk.center/?p=129074)
Europe’s reliance on American cargoes adds another layer. US LNG made up 58% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025. Washington is therefore Europe’s largest LNG supplier and a mediator in the Ukraine talks, which is an awkward dual role. Earlier Reuters reporting suggested that American involvement could give Washington visibility, and possibly some control, over the volumes returning to Europe. The White House says any deal must be negotiated with the US Development Finance Corporation and Treasury, and must benefit US taxpayers and companies.
Implications for LNG markets
For LNG exporters, including US producers that have built market share in Europe, a return of Russian pipeline volumes would be a competitive threat. Long-term contracts and investment decisions depend on European demand staying structurally strong. Even the prospect of a deal can influence sentiment, and it may be intended to do so.
Our view
Three points stand out. First, this is a bargaining chip, not a supply plan. With sanctions, damaged infrastructure and EU legislation in place, no Russian gas will flow through Nord Stream this winter. Second, Europe’s divisions matter. Some EU countries see Russian gas as a way to cut energy costs, while officials in Brussels and parts of Eastern Europe have reacted angrily. Germany’s stance will be decisive. Third, price pressure is the real driver. If storage stays low and Gulf supply remains disrupted, political resolve will be tested more by the cost of heating than by any diplomatic proposal.
What to watch
Watch winter storage and TTF pricing, progress towards a Ukraine truce, any shift in Berlin’s position, and the role of the DFC and Treasury in structuring deals. For now, Nord Stream is less a pipeline than a negotiating position.
Written by:
*Chloe Maluleke
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Russia & Middle East Specialist
**The Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL.
** MORE ARTICLES ON OUR WEBSITE https://bricscg.com/ (https://bricscg.com/)
** Follow @ (https://x.com/brics_daily)brics_daily (https://x.com/brics_daily)on Twitter for daily BRICS+ updates and instagram @brics_daily (https://www.instagram.com/brics_daily?igsh=bmhvbTd0YzA4a2wx)
